Is it time for a re-stage?

In 2021 and ’22, nearly every month in the food and environmental trades there was another announcement of a Series “pick the letter” closing as hundreds of millions in capital raise flooded the “start-up” march to glory on the road to solve the future of food.

• The philosophical underpinnings of this wave of new brands and businesses was based on a profound new, powerful understanding that the food system as we know it is a significant actor in the carbon emission contributions to global warming from agricultural sources.

New technologies promising exact replicas (bioidentical) of animal-based proteins with no taste or eating experience sacrifice operated like magnets, drawing private equity and VC funding right and left as investors labored to spread their risk across a broad swath of promising players. Their hope to land on some commercialization and scaling magic that would amply reward investors who searched for the next Golden Goose headed for the animal-free protein hall of fame.

It often felt like a crusade to save humanity by remaking where food comes from in ways never before imagined. Meanwhile the nascent plant-based meat proteins marketplace was further along its journey and about to explode as Beyond Meat unveiled its now famous claim of “Plant-Based Meat for Meat Lovers” to lure in a non-vegan, larger audience of early adopters. It was an audacious claim of decadent hamburger eating experience but crafted from plants. The other not-so-recognize-able ingredients in this highly processed product would later surface critically as a drag on its healthier premise.

The plant-based protein hype machine in full throat fomented a wave of channel expansion into fast food, mass grocery retail. Of note the rapid moves into mass distribution may have been il-advised when the core audiences of these behemoth retail outlets were populated with consumers driven more so by pocketbook issues than the loftier cries to reduce carbon emissions from food creation.

• When certain consumer cohorts are less enamored with the environmental goals, they can be more sensitive to the price premium “ouch” and less tolerant of any sacrifices in taste or texture of a food you’ve been in love with for most of their lives. Impact of this on repeat purchase velocity, a prime indicator of stickiness in the core value proposition, became self-evident.

Know thy market?

In a crusade to rapidly change the world’s eating habits, over-reach ensued with large cap CPGs, QSR restaurant chains and other patrons of the mass market love jumping on the plant-based bandwagon to either launch a subpar knock-off product or grab a new menu board item to wave in front of consumers in the midst of a media storm that trumpeted the rise of plant-based solutions as ‘better for you’ – with a side order of less taxing to the environment.

All well and good and yes, the number of consumers who care about sustainability has been rising for years. Still important to consider the core user base for these premium food choices is found in higher income, higher education household zip codes where people are more intrinsically inclined to support the global warming story — while looking past the price premium and not-quite-the-same eating experience. Had the early category moves been more respectful of channel and audience selection, some of the inevitable over-the-cliff fiasco on sales volume draw down might have been avoided.

An eco-system of Confirmation Bias inhabitants drives the future-food ship

The near zero Federal funds rate pushed dollars on the hunt for an investment home in new directions. This coincided with a ramp up in media attention to global warming impacts, and the role agriculture plays in contributing emissions (especially from livestock). The emergence of various technologies like precision and biomass fermentation and cell-cultured protein creation swarmed the decks of a start-up tsunami fueled by ample funding to go around.

Stirring this pot is an eco-system of attorneys, bankers, VC’s, distributors, pundits and alt. protein convention companies all with a stake in the future food pie, helping promote expansion, while simultaneously encouraging new combatants to join the fray. One look at the aggregate logo farm on convention web sites of investors, suppliers, brands and supporting actors promised a form of ‘more is better’ while the line-up to secure capital infusions got longer.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are now somewhere in the range of 500,000 new startups every year, much of this an outcome of investment flow and the growing availability of contract manufacturing that lowers the capital cost bar of entry.

Kaboom!

Lots of noise, a friendly media spotlight, ambitious environmental virtue signaling that the future of food was about to flip — all fueled by escalating global emissions and rising temperatures moving at a record busting pace threatening to disrupt life as we know it, especially in the southern hemisphere.

Then poof!

Beyond Meat’s decision to access public markets with a stock offering also created a high level of scrutiny on performance reporting, with cracks in the veneer starting to show as questions swirled about ingredients, processing, taste, cost and whether or not these products were actually better for you. This analysis caught up alongside the erstwhile decisions to jump the new category development shark by entering broad market retail and QSR distribution (too) early. The false positive of rapid volume growth slammed up against a souring media climate and wave of consumers who had less at stake in the plant-based protein promise.

The shift in results met with a media whip that questioned, “is the plant-based meat party over?” The net effect of all this had a dampening impact on all corners of the emerging proteins marketplace, while inflation pushed the cost of money up. Investment slowed and suddenly the emerging brand players were confronted with decisions on mitigating cash burn. Horns pulled inward and the entire innovation train quickly slowed. The push towards market launches with it now moving at golf cart speeds, while the mechanics of survival of the fittest had its way.

Truth remains inescapable

• Has climate change stopped? No, it is accelerating.
• Has the repurposing of valued Amazon rainforest for raising livestock reversed? No, it is expanding.
• Has food somehow become less of a contributor to global warming? No, it continues.
• Has the promise of proteins made without an animal become less relevant? No, it is an important tech development that deserves to win.
• Is it conceivable the expanding demand for protein based on world population growth will outstrip the conventional supply system? Yes, we need better, more efficient way to make proteins to nourish a world with 10 billion souls by 2050.

The biggest barrier to successful commercialization of new food tech?

Most will argue it’s the lack of manufacturing infrastructure to make these fermentable proteins at scale to both lower prices to parity with legacy products while producing in sufficient volume to be a reliable, viable replacement. That’s a real challenge. One that desperately calls for government support to speed up the development of fermentation manufacturing capacity. Yet I would counter there’s ample proof that major shifts in technology that impact consumer behavior and perceptions can inadvertently form a stalwart block to change, if not addressed with skill and strategic consideration.

When the capital flow started to slow in emerging brand land, so did the efforts to effectively educate the world about the who, what, how and why of these new food solutions. You can’t just show up one day and say here’s meat and dairy made without an animal that’s not plant-based, but is exactly the same as the animal version only more sustainable.

First question: is that even possible?

Second: How did you do it?

Third: is it safe?

Fourth: will I like the taste?

Fifth: can I afford it?

Sixth: does this mean conventional meat and dairy goes away? What about farmers?

Complicated messages about things people aren’t familiar with runs a chance of falling flat right out of the gate. Perceived risk is a killer of innovations that don’t find early footing. People will not tolerate a substandard experience.

Time for a restage, restart, recommitment to authoring the future of food

The negative baggage trailing plant-based meat is unfortunate. It sent a chilling effect across the entire alt. protein investment landscape. The cooling became circular as shelf presence narrowed while people returned to their traditional food buying grocery list habits.

No, it’s not over by any means. But this whole future of food engine needs a restart. The fundamentals of why it must happen aren’t weaker. That said we’re talking about food here, and food is a uniquely emotional category. The bar for safety, health, taste, texture and cost is higher for anything people put in their bodies.

There needs to be a collective meeting of the minds on how to talk about and romance these new foods in a way that’s respectful of how people behave and make decisions. Too many brand cooks in the messaging kitchen and you have chaos on how the story is told. Organizations like the Precision Fermentation Alliance need proper funding and experienced marketing guidance on how to package and present the story (insight research) about a better way to make proteins, while managing consumer expectations and reservations. No, Founder intuition won’t solve this.

A word to the wise: adapt to changing food culture

Historically, America’s beginnings with a north European immigrant base led by England, Ireland and Germany brought generally brand cuisines to our shores that later collided with America’s industrial complex built on cheap, fast and efficient. What did we get? Fast food, TV dinners, microwaveable meals and industrialized processing. Now comes a sea change…

Live to eat vs. eat to live

A massive makeover in how we view food is in motion, and the emergence of foodie culture once reserved for high income households has democratized with the Food TV network, food trucks, chef driven fast casual, sensory appreciation, and a realization that food is integral to human bonding. Thus, why cuisine exploration, meal preparation, experiences has spawned an unprecedented interest in better ingredients, creativity, craftsmanship and slower paced meals. America’s preoccupation with capitalistic efficiency personified in McDonald’s is evolving with new culinary infusions:

France – croissant and coq au vin

Italy – pasta and prosciutto

Japan – sushi and ramen

Food is an adventure

When we move to the most significant change in where food comes from since agriculture was invented 10,000 years ago, the context we build around food experience walks alongside the important story of sustainability, carbon emissions, natural resource consumption, land use and better farming practices. Ultimately leading with the mouth and heart before head, it is incumbent on future food to embrace the moral static of the right way to live.

People need something to believe in and we can provide that by building a better food world with new rules. Changing behaviors will lead to changes in beliefs. To get to behaviors we would be well advised to cast a net in taste adventures and culinary creativity while being careful to navigate around any perception of mechanized, highly processed, industrial friendly efficiencies. Lean into science and you’ll lose people in a heartbeat. The questions we’ll be tasked to answer: will people rave about the new food products we create? And in doing so will it change their expectations about what’s possible.

You never get a second chance to make a first impression, so how it starts is meaningful. That said the time to start is NOW. Prepping the beachhead won’t happen overnight. Laying track now to get the world comfortable, even looking forward to what’s coming, is essential.

If this discussion got you thinking about the future of food, us the link below to ask questions. If a robust dialogue ensues, we will do a follow-up story.

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Bob Wheatley is the CEO of Chicago-based Emergent. Traditional brand marketing often sidesteps more human qualities that can help consumers form an emotional bond. Yet brands yearn for authentic engagement, trust and a lasting relationship with their customers. For more information, contact [email protected] and follow on Twitter @BobWheatley.

Novel protein likely to leap ahead of other emerging food tech…

It is time for the food and beverage industry to pay closer attention to an emerging food tech category that is highly likely to change the course of how food is created. It arrives at a time when our current food system is increasingly critiqued as an actor in the climate impact drama.

• At the end of this article, download our Emerging Companies to Watch list in this exciting evolutionary story.

The next great disruption in food creation

We are about to witness a wholesale transformation of where our food comes from and how it is produced – the first major sea change of its kind in 10,000 years since animals and plants were first domesticated. What’s at stake? No less than our planet’s health, impacted by decades of obscured mistreatment from an industrial food system that contributes roughly 24% of climate warming greenhouse gases – more than all types of fossil fuel powered transportation combined. For many this is a jolting discovery.

Dawn of the low carbon food system

Advances in bioengineering have served to refine a centuries old technology we know as fermentation. A familiar process used in some form for a millennium to brew beer, craft wine and create cheese and yogurt. This evolved tech is employing uniquely programmed microbes (micro) instead of animals (macro) to create high quality, healthy, great tasting proteins like meat, eggs and dairy.

The tech leap for food lovers: these new proteins are bioidentical to the animal version. That means virtually indistinguishable in taste and eating experience, while eliminating things people don’t want such as cholesterol, lactose and antibiotics. Moreover, they come to us at a fraction of the environmental emissions impact of livestock farming and its drastic over-consumption of limited water and land resources.

Precision fermentation may also work to leap over some of the shortcomings in plant-based products that retain a higher taste hill to climb because the proteins are not identical to what they’re trying to replicate. Their recipe goal is to mimic and simulate the flavor and mouthfeel of animal versions. They strive to do this by using plant-based ingredients and other food science wizardry to recreate textures, chew, even the bloody juice of a burger patty. The plant-based industry currently chases consumers who believe the eating experience may be close but is just not a full analog of what they expect from the meat and dairy products they crave.

Consumers are changing

Most of us grew up with deeply engrained, idealized and nostalgic beliefs about food. In its most authentic and revered form, it is always sourced from the soil or raised in a verdant pasture. For eons we’ve paid homage to an impression that real, nutritious food is an outcome of things we harvest on a family farm, delivered with as little adulteration as possible.

Moreover, in the past food science was often viewed skeptically as a precursor to over-processing and manipulating food ingredients – or creating not-in-nature versions of same in the laboratory. This reached its apex in the reduced calorie and fat wars of the 1990s where food science made addition by subtraction infamous via food engineering – sugar and fat removed and replaced with other artificial ingredients as glorified in the fat-free cake and donut craze.

Sense of urgency flipping the paradigm

The historic friction between science and nature is evolving now as consumers become aware of the relationship between industrial food production and climate change, its impact on scarce resources, the link to animal welfare issues and looming food scarcity challenges as world population accelerates.

People are coming around to see science as part of the solution, not a menace to be avoided. In a recent study by The Hartman Group on the future potential of precision fermentation technology, they describe the tech as a powerful advancement. Due in part to its familiarity with consumers, more so than cellular meat technologies that require a sophisticated and somewhat complicated explanation of how it works.

• Familiarity is important to adoption and trial because it feels less risky to people who are systemically driven to avoid risk in their food purchase decisions.

According to Hartman, millennials’ (born between 1981 and 1996) openness to the idea may comprise the ideal core “early adopter” audience for precision fermentation food products.

• 67% of millennials now believe science and technology may offer the best hope to address climate change.

• 62% agree science and tech innovations can help make food more sustainable.

• 62% believe foods made this way would be healthier.

In short, they believe this new approach to food creation may transcend the limitations and excesses of the current food system. In fact, Hartman states 84% of this cohort say they would be likely to purchase precision fermentation made products, and half would be willing to pay more for them.

Part of the comfort level (easier to grasp) consumers have with fermentation is its legacy use in beer, wine and cheesemaking. Additionally precision fermentation is already in our lives, used for decades to make insulin, vitamins, and the enzyme rennet that causes dairy milk to coagulate and separate into curds for cheesemaking.

The path to market for precision fermentation

Hartman’s research revealed that 50% of consumers are already looking for products that prioritize sustainability and animal welfare in how they’re created. Further when asked about what will influence their preferences and willingness to try these new foods, safety (60%) and taste (59%) scored almost equally as top priorities followed by healthy (53%).

The study showed the top three environmental benefits they expect from this emerging food category:

1. Reducing greenhouse gas – 38%
2. Minimizing other forms of pollution – 37%
3. Merchandized in sustainable packaging – 29%

Size of the prize

Hartman forecasts a potential market of 132 million consumers by 2027, with millennials most likely to replace all or most of current products with new precision fermentation versions.

The adoption curve follows a familiar path for new premium CPG food and beverage categories:

15% are ready to go

11% will be easily convinced

14% will be convinced with clear benefits

This falls in line with existing research and numerous case studies that confirm in any emerging premium CPG food business, approximately 14% of the addressable market will be early adopters – those less concerned with risk and more drawn to being first-in to try new products. Breaching the chasm between early adoption and mainstream acceptance is the marketing challenge of the ages and requires a carefully formulated strategy of validation, verification, channel management and calibrated expansion aimed at reaching the right audience segment at the right time in the right place.

Overly ambitious extensions too early into the wrong channels, retail locations or foodservice environments can set the business up for retrenchment when audiences less enthralled with the deep sustainability story and for whom price is king, may not be ready to push aside their habitual choices. Perceived risk is a hurdle that needs to be flattened.

Emergent marketing guidance

What will be required to nurture these new brands to fame and fortune? Education, education, education and more education.

How is it made?

Will it be safe to eat?

Will it taste good?

How is it better for the environment?

Will it be healthier for me?

Is it affordable relative to the product it will replace?

What about allergens?

The narrative should be built around what Hartman calls the “intersection of good for me and good for the planet.”

Food is an emotional category – we eat with our eyes, we respond to perceived deliciousness because we crave great taste experiences. We are drawn to the familiar. Thus, the language that’s used, the narrative story that’s created should avoid descriptions that are founded in scientific and technical lingo.

The experiences of respected voices in the culinary world, the outcome reports in social media from early adopters all coalesce to provide an eco-system of credible proof of satisfaction and value. This is NOT the time for old-school CPG claims and ad tropes that glorify self-promotion of features. This is your opportunity to employ new strategies founded in generating trust, belief and a heavy lean on values and deeper meaning.

• Your story focus is the consumer and their journey, and how these new products will help support planet health as well as personal wellbeing.

This may well be the most exciting adventure to arise in the food industry since homogenous audiences and mass media created a gigantic market for packaged food and beverage in the 1950s. Importantly, it also offers a viable solution to the planet crisis we’re in and a path to correct an unsustainable food system in a manner that will also help solve how we will affordably feed 10 billion souls by 2050.

If you’re interested in launching a conversation about strategies to nurture, grow and set these new brands up for success, use this link to start an informal conversation with us. If you’re interested in our take on the brands to watch and collaborate with as this story unfolds, use this link to download our Emerging Brands to Watch list.