Symphony of logistics becomes an orchestra of societal values

For the last 30 years or more, supermarkets have operated as a highly-choreographed dance of sourcing, merchandizing and value pricing all stage-managed with intricate daily replenishing management of same. It is, in many respects, a remarkable achievement that provides the lowest cost-to-quality food on earth in an assortment depth that is the envy of the rest of the planet. The grocery store has stood as an assurance of food quality and availability, yet now arrives precariously at a moment of transformation that is far beyond the mechanics of coming in-store robots, the challenges of e-commerce friction and assorted home delivery platforms.

Strategic shift underway

Food retail may also be the most visible in-your-face demonstration of traditional brand marketing strategies borne of the post-World War II consumer packaged goods explosion; focused on a more impersonal and product feature-and-benefit form of consumer communication.

A sea change started to emerge in recent years based on an evolving consumer mindset driven about what matters most to them on the path to purchase. Witness the emergence of health and wellness as a primary driver of consumer preference, the attention now paid to transparency and supply chain integrity and a growing concern over food safety practices. All of these emerging trends have eclipsed the traditional purchase motivators of taste, price and convenience.

The Great Pandemic of 2020 pushes the envelope of change faster and farther as consumers not only connect the dots between the quality of the food they eat and their quality of life, but now see retailers and brands as active participants in their social and societal concerns and growing activism.

Two fundamental impacts of COVID 19 on behaviors and attitudes

1. The pandemic has served to reveal the inescapable, searing questions of economic inequality, exclusion, racial prejudice and its unfairness while lighting a fire to address and solve these inequities. How this plays out will require sensitivity to the issues and strategic planning to address it openly and visibly in policy, procedure and behavior.
2. On another front, at one time consumers aspired to improvement in their lifestyle through status signaling in conspicuous consumption of brands that elicited those feelings of aspirational identity. However, today this has fallen away, shed by a pandemic that has entirely recalibrated what matters to people. Today a brand reputation is enhanced by its social, cultural and environmental values.

Brands and retailers must add responsiveness to a requirement for higher purpose, generosity in behavior and social improvement to their actions. Do you think this transformative insight has fully translated into how brands and retailers package their story and represent themselves in the marketplace? I would say no. Or not yet, while a few are in the starting blocks and getting ready to claim their competitive advantage.

Recasting the supermarket business model

Here we find ourselves in a moment of mechanization. Robots. Digital ordering platforms. Supply chain optimization. Experiments with drones. Electronic grocery carts. Wringing more efficiency in an effort to get product A into hands B more quickly, efficiently and at lower cost.

Nothing wrong with any of this, except it may inadvertently mask the cultural trend changes that argue for a different priority around how supermarkets organize their business for success and relevance to the consumer they need to keep. Technology has its place, but there is a more human need arising that should be considered strategically, as customer-centric planning becomes a top priority.

Let’s go to the ground on this together, where the food culture ‘rubber’ meets the consumer relevance road:

For over a year we’ve been reporting on the shift to home-based meal consumption and cooking. A fair question then: what does the massive pivot to home cooking mean to supermarkets? We’re not talking about the obvious of selling more products, more often for more occasions.

The intimacy people have with food and its preparation is increasing. There’s another form of ‘closeness’ that is percolating underneath as a potential component of retail strategic uniqueness and differentiation – the two components of sustainable business growth.

People buying food from people

You may recall there was an era prior to the maturing of efficient retail when people knew the sellers and makers.

A relevant story: awhile back I had the honor and privilege of meeting Glen Kohn and his business partner at a networking event staged by Chicago’s impressive food brand incubator, The Hatchery. Later during a deeper get acquainted meeting, Glen spoke in detail about his company Prevail Jerky, an emerging super-premium brand of clean, high quality jerky snacks offering an array of culinary forward flavors.

He told the story of how his wife had food allergy challenges. He wanted to make a jerky his wife and family could enjoy. You see Glen was a smoked meat mastermind who had a personal passion for barbecue, smoking proteins and making his own bespoke jerky. He set out to perfect this high protein snack with a recipe that stripped away the legacy bad-for-you allergenic ingredients and use of nitrates, excessive sodium, artificial flavoring and sugars that dogged this dried packaged meat category since inception.

More magical in my opinion is a preparation technique, and he won’t say exactly how he does it, that improves the eating experience by making the meat less tough and chewy. Ultimately what we have here is another improved, higher quality, better-for-you product in a legacy category, with a personal story behind it. In effect, the food quality is guaranteed through Glen’s personal journey.

Even before the Pandemic sent us behind closed doors and placed an even higher premium on human contact, personal relationships were making a comeback. People want to know who the makers of their food are, where they come from, what they are about and how that translates into the product they’ve created.

• Increasingly, we see the aisles at food retail stocked with new brands built by a person, not an R&D lab or innovation department. What was once a hall of impersonal, faceless brands, is turning into a showcase of businesses that acquire their social value through consumers’ desire to support an actual, real-life maker.

Makers bring with them values, beliefs, mission and unique standards of quality that provided deeper meaning past the better recipe. Here’s the strategic twist: while local sourcing has been popularized recently, this nuance stretches the idea further to what we’re calling Local-ism.

People now look at purchases as a statement of what they believe is important rather than flags of social status and prosperity. They are voting their beliefs and values with their wallet. The checkout lane is a voting booth. They are electing product winners with a voice, face and story. The intimacy with food goes deeper. The sense of community building gains a whole new perspective. The store is an aggregation opportunity for these stories-as-brands and a place where they can be brought to life.

• Now retailers have an opportunity to move past the old-school model of being a seller of boxes, cans and bags off shelves at velocity on hyper-thin margins. Food retail can disrupt itself by becoming a form of neighborhood cooking club that respects the environment and the farm while supporting people who craft new food solutions that come to market with a soul. Doesn’t sound like a distribution center for factory food, does it?

What was once impersonal, transactional and formulaic, takes on some of the pastiche of the corner market where the buyer knows the seller, meets the maker and real trusted relationships take root. This is not in conflict with technology and robotics but is rather an important reflection of consumer insight to better guide retail strategy and banner differentiation.

How to think about this: efficiency only goes so far. Becoming a more human-focused business that embraces the emotional investment people have in food, its provenance and related quality is a path to relevance that beats yesterday’s reliance on store location and lower pricing to create competitive advantage. Amazon may have a tougher time with this kind of thinking.

Recommendations on humanizing food retail

• Optimize your aisles and product assortment to feature local and emerging brands with a maker story.

• Use your content creation platform to provide a voice for their stories – and a real, relevant reason for your customers to feel connected to the products they buy at your store.

• Serve this up in a context that works in people’s lives around meal and snack solutions. That’s the foundation for relevance for the food-savvy consumer.

• Marry and merge your indulgent food strategies with better-for-you as the relationship between these two draws ever closer.

• Look past the coupon to start creating other experiences both digital and in-store that showcase your love for food adventure and culinary creativity. Love of food is something you can immediately demonstrate to your shoppers.

When you become highly differentiated, unique and relevant to people, your need to rely on heavy advertising spend to generate traffic declines. When you become remarkable in your shoppers’ eyes, people talk about their experience. Word of mouth is still the most effective form of marketing outreach at your disposal. It is an outcome of remarkable-ness.

Changing perspective may be hard to do because retail traditions and embedded thinking are more about logistics and efficiencies than experiences and food adventures. When the name of the game for decades has been how can we deliver food most cost-effectively – somewhere, we’ve lost sight of the real people who are buying the food – and meeting their needs beyond assortment and price.

When you can see merit in bringing to life the voices and stories of food makers and create ways for buyers to meet them, it lifts your banner above competing mostly on price and product range. That’s a race to the bottom no one wins and plays right into the hands of the endless digital shelf.

A supermarket chain CEO once said to me, “if you walk our office halls on any given day you may find it hard to determine if we’re in the food or hardware business. So much of what we do is too far removed from emotional connections to food and what people use it for.”

You just need to fall in love with food and its ability to transform people’s lives.

If this conversation gets you thinking and you would like to explore it further with like-minded people, use this link to start a conversation without any expectation of a business relationship save we made new friends.

Looking for more food for thought? Subscribe to the Emerging Trends Report.

Food Retail Innovation Now in Truckee, CA

Raley’s, the family-owned Sacramento-based supermarket company, recently launched a new grocery store concept they envision as a model of how food retail should evolve to build consumer relevance. Located in picturesque Truckee, California, just outside Lake Tahoe, the trading area is populated with families devoted to an active, outdoor lifestyle.

Raley’s designed the store concept with Truckee’s active families in mind – visualizing a supermarket focused entirely on healthy living. The Raley’s O-N-E Market banner (Organics, Nutrition, Education) is a four-walled, 36,000 square foot better-for-you food discovery zone. Designed for people who understand there may be a direct link between what you eat and the quality of your life, the concept mirrors their desire to seek out better choices, explore a more mindful selection of products, and learn about improved nutrition. Remarkably, it is a food store that embodies owner Michael Teel’s higher purpose mantra to “change the way the world eats one plate at a time.”

“We have been on a journey for health and wellness, and Raley’s O-N-E Market is the next step in our company’s transformation,” said Chelsea Minor, Raley’s Corporate Director of Public Affairs. “Raley’s O-N-E Market offers a highly-curated assortment of products that are organic where possible, wholesome, minimally processed, sustainably sourced and offers a stage for nutrition education. We want consumers to understand why these products were selected for our shelves and why they are better options for them and the community,” she said.

Who is really in charge, merchant or customer?

For the most part grocery stores operate in reverse from consumer lifestyle insight.  The shopping design and experience is most often built from the merchant’s business model intended to move boxes, cans and bags off shelves at velocity. Thus, in many ways, grocery stores are entirely recognize-able banner to banner with merchandise schemes and traffic flow patterns that follow a commoditized approach to assortment and shopping experience.

Which begs the question: what if a store format is re-imagined as a reflection of the lifestyle interests of its core customers, instead of the other way around? “The biggest differentiator is our product mix. We emphasize foods ‘free from’ artificial ingredients, colors, high fructose corn syrup, hydrogenated fats and oils and more. We source organic where possible – in produce over 60% of the department is organic to meet consistently high standards for health, nutrition and sustainability,” reports Minor.

As evidence of that commitment Minor says shoppers will not find any conventional soft drink products inside the store. Indeed, sugar awareness is a priority at Raley’s O-N-E Market. Any cereal containing more than 25% of its total calories from added sugar per serving is identified with a ‘Higher in Added Sugar’ shelf tag. Other categories getting the sugar evaluation include Ready-to-Drink (RTD) beverages, pasta sauces, baby food, protein bars and condiments like BBQ sauce and ketchup.

To help consumers make better decisions while shopping, digital screens in the front of the store rotate messages by department providing information on healthier choices. Foodservice areas use window clings and the menu board to help convey this useful information. Better-for-you guidance is also provided in price rails at the shelf to help shoppers make informed purchase decisions.

Retailer as life partner on journey to healthier lifestyle

Raley’s believes the consumer should be equipped to shop with better information and guidance. In an effort to help them realize their healthy living ambitions, the product options they’ll encounter already lean heavily in that direction. In the high traffic meat department, attributes such as organic or anti-biotic free are flagged within an assortment that’s already curated with healthier and higher quality choices in mind.

To help fulfill the Education mission, the Truckee Raley’s O-N-E Market is their first store to have a registered dietitian on-site to interact and coach consumers. Scott Brown, Raley’s first in-store registered dietitian nutritionist (RDN), is there to conduct nutrition tours, provide one-on-one healthy living consults and answer customer questions. Raley’s customer loyalty platform also gets a twist in Truckee: the “Something Extra Health” program offers biometric screenings, classes and in the future will feature vendor presentations.

“Shoppers these days want to know more and are faced with an increasingly confusing environment around navigating claims like ’natural‘ and ’plant based,’” said Minor. “We feel we have a responsibility to help explain and clarify what best practices look like in making food choices. Our role as retailer is to help them on their healthy living journey by operating as guide and coach.”

The future of food retail?

Most satisfying in our conversations with Minor and others at Raley’s was their sense of commitment and passion about what ”changing the way the world eats one plate at a time” truly means and how that plays out when you’re inside the front door. The position Raley’s O-N-E Market takes is active not passive, expressing leadership rather than go figure it out for yourself.

No one is going to beat Amazon on friction-free e-commerce, or Walmart on lower price. We have ample evidence that the middle market in grocery retail is a tough place to do business when the value proposition is based on location (getting weaker to defend) or all-things-to-all-people assortment (not a real strength anymore).

We believe the platform of highly differentiated and focused concept – especially in the Health & Wellness space – gives consumers an experience and another reason to shop brick and mortar. This is critical to food retail success and means leaning in fully to a commitment that places the customer at the center of strategic planning.

This insight must be informed by a crystal-clear higher purpose that translates into on-the-ground strategic decisions which defines and manifests in every aspect of store operation.

Human beings are emotional creatures. People are not fact-based analytical decision-making machines. We know the human sub-conscious plays a far more important role in helping guide actions and decisions than the cognitive side, yet most retailers operate on the “rational” channel.

When it’s heart-over-head, the grocery store shopping experience is enhanced by strategies that acknowledge our deep love affair with food, interesting culinary experiences and the prevailing desire for a healthy lifestyle.

• Disney knows how to create the magic in their kingdom. Imagine a food store with the same heart and passion for food experience and how that could play out in a store setting.

Raley’s recognizes the growing importance of grocery foodservice experiences especially at a time when going to restaurants is less desirable. Yet the magic of environment and ambiance are no less important here than at the corner bistro. “Raley’s O-N-E Market includes McKinney Loft – a tribute to Steve McKinney, skier, mountaineer and local icon. The loft features plenty of seating, a beer and wine bar, bar bites, and an outdoor fireplace and large TV screens,” explains Minor.

At the crux of Raley’s likely success with Raley’s O-N-E Market is its higher purpose. This is harder to define correctly and to optimize fully. For that reason, Emergent has built a four-step plan to guide higher purpose development. You can download a copy here.

If would like to discuss this in the context of your business and its future, please use this link to start a conversation.

For more food trends, consumer insight and communications strategy follow us on Twitter @EmergentLiving.

Looking for more food for thought? Subscribe to the Emerging Trends Report.

Right for the times we are in and when it truly matters

Perhaps the single most important emotional revelation coming out of the pandemic and surrounding events is the complete loss of control experienced by people, now buffeted by an unseen disease and historic events. The conditions have taken charge of our everyday lives, challenged our cultural norms, and affected our behaviors and personal priorities. 

We now have overwhelming evidence that people want to reassert control in their lives in meaningful ways. In our recent article, Health is the New Wealth, we started a discussion around the one thing consumers can actively participate in controlling that helps correct the imbalance and uncertainty they’re experiencing: health and wellbeing matters. 

The pandemic amplifies the health and wellness issue exponentially as people work to protect themselves by investing in their immunity thresholds through better eating and healthy living. This has influenced the purchase patterns and brand preferences for millions and ushered in an era of incredible innovation brought by entrepreneurs who, right and left, are reinventing legacy categories and creating new ones with better ingredients while serving a higher purpose to boot. Every so often we come across a new brand that has relevance written all over it because it so squarely hits the touchpoints of what matters to people now.

Everipe lands at precisely the right moment with precisely the right solution

The pandemic has locked families into homebound consumption occasions and a need for healthy beverages that are pantry ready and convenient. Imagine this: a shelf-stable, super-food smoothie developed using freeze-drying tech to perfectly preserve real fruit ingredients. Freeze-drying removes moisture while also concentrating the flavor profile. 

Then add super-food ingredients to enhance nutritional density. Make it easy to do – just add water, juice or dairy and some ice to a blender. Make it at an affordable price point. And oh by the way, eliminate the hassle of building a homemade smoothie from scratch while fresh fruit ingredients go from ripe to fuzzy in a matter of days. 

Everipe is right for the moment we’re in. We interviewed founding partner Kerry Roberts to learn how the company is handling the pandemic and what they see in the future ahead. Here’s our Q&A with Kerry and some related observations from Emergent.

1.   In the last 60 days much has changed for emerging food and beverage brands. How has the pandemic impacted your business and what changes have you made in how you go-to-market?

Kerry Roberts: “These last couple of months have managed to pull the rug of ‘business normal’ out from under us as company leaders, parents, and partners.

Everipe, is a direct-to-consumer, shelf-stable superfood line of good-for-you smoothies. We suddenly found ourselves relevant for these functional benefits overnight, and for reasons we never could have crafted in a strategy deck. We were incredibly lucky to have planned a launch with Amazon in March that was expedited with Amazon’s emerging business team given the need for nutritious (easy to ship) pantry foods – and so we have seen that channel immediately exceed our expectations. At the same time, we’re seeking out additional E-commerce channels with launches in past weeks on Zulily, Walmart.com and we’re temporarily pausing any plans to pursue brick and mortar.”

Emergent: Ready-to-drink smoothies have been around for a while, but many of them are higher in sugar and the taste isn’t quite on a par with fresh-blended versions. Making smoothies from scratch is time consuming, like baking a daily cake. Frozen fruit ingredients can be expensive and there’s only so much room in the freezer to start anyway. 

Everipe hits so many appropriate buttons from great taste to convenience to nutrition delivery to satisfying at a friendly price – you just know this is going to catch fire. My oldest daughter, who is a smoothie fanatic, loves them. The innovation here is timed, positioned and packaged correctly. 

2.   What specific changes have you implemented in your sales and marketing strategies?

Kerry Roberts: “Consumers in the early stages of quarantine were shopping under duress and it was important to recognize that they were not wired for aisle-browsing discovery of new brands and their messaging. 

As we thought about consumer motivations and how they had shifted on-a-dime in our category from things like energy and weight management to home delivery and shelf-stability, we immediately adjusted our messaging.

Instead we focused on pantry storage, clean ingredients and free delivery – which sound functional at face value, however they all ladder up at present, to safety.

Tactically, in addition to seeking out expanded e-commerce distribution, we’re also leaning aggressively in on our own direct-to-consumer channel, offering a deep trial discount and tripling our digital Ad spend to introduce a captive audience to Everipe.” 

Emergent: Right here you are witnessing the one great lesson that feeds trial and development of a new brand: put the consumer first at all times. Listen carefully to what they are saying, how they are behaving. Be cognizant of the environmental conditions they find themselves in. Work to understand the nuances of what they care about and plan backwards from there.

Relevance and resonance are the twin engines of growth in food and beverage businesses. You can’t have either without an acute understanding of what drives consumer behavior. 

The “if you build it they will come” approach just won’t work. Everipe understands the consumer comes first. Period.

3.   How do you think investors are reacting to the COVID-19 situation and how does that impact their interest in brands like yours?  

Kerry Roberts: “Everipe has not taken on funding as yet and as we think about the coming months, we’re conscious that dollars may tighten as Venture Capitalists and funds work to support their own portfolios through a recession. 

That said, I feel this year presents an incredible opportunity for founders to create a story around how they navigated these challenging times – how quickly they pivoted, how strategic they reacted, and how they set their brand up to weather what may become a lengthy recovery. 

With no shortage of incredible product ideas, I think investors look to invest in founders as potential teammates. While this may not be an easy time to champion an emerging brand, the chance for founders to showcase your character and intellect is probably as poignant as it’s ever going to be (at least I hope this is as tough as it gets!)”

Emergent: We are reminded once again that it is the strength and skill sets of founding partners and creators that imbues brands with “difference.” It is rare that you find a CPG experienced marketer like Kerry Roberts at the controls of building a new brand like Everipe. More often than not founders don’t hail from the marketing discipline. Yet, how a new brand is packaged and presented can have enormous impact on scale and staying power. 

Knowing your skill sets and capabilities can help owners identify the blind spots – and brand building can be one of them. This is why Emergent is a resource for emerging brands. Consumers are emotional creatures. They do not make analytical, fact-based decisions concerning the brands they care about. 

We know that both the stories and the words used to convey the value proposition are of great importance in creating a strong brand right out of the gate. It’s a highly specialized area of expertise not always “owned” by the owners.

Kerry’s presence at Everipe gives them a significant advantage, because she understands the emotional fabric and character of what a brand consists of and how vital it is these days to design it with higher purpose and deeper meaning.

4.   How will the economic uncertainty and lifestyle impacts of the pandemic influence consumer priorities and behaviors?

Kerry Roberts: “I reflect on the spotlight placed right now on wellness, particularly immunity – and health as the only currency that really matters and I am hopeful that the connection between how we fuel our bodies, and how we feel, (and heal), becomes more appreciated. 

At the same time, I worry that in a recession, consumers may not have the resources to invest in healthier options. As a startup with lean margins we understand this friction. I hope that the leadership for making truly clean foods more accessible continues to extend to, and include, big CPG businesses who have the resources to make those changes.”

Emergent: As we’ve said, “Health is indeed the New Wealth.” The pandemic and related events have made the home a more important safe zone; making and consuming food at home more desired; and investing in our health and wellbeing a top priority. There is no greater calling now for the food and beverage industry to acknowledge this will not be achieved through incrementalism in formulation adjustments, but in reinvention of legacy brands to answer the desire for higher quality, shorter ingredient decks and improved nutritionals. 

Six years ago we reported on the seismic move in food and beverage preferences to fresh, locally sourced, higher quality food and beverage choices as people fully connected the dots between what they ingest and the quality of their lives. This single event has created a shift in consumption patterns, food and foodservice retail strategies, and changed the very definition of what better-for-you eating is about. The pandemic has only heightened the shift.

Better-for-You is what the consumer cares about. It is what they want. A panicked blip in sales of boxed mac and cheese should not be interpreted as a lasting return to highly processed food consumption. 

If we indeed care about the health and wellbeing of our users, we owe it to them to advance the creation of healthier products and new food and beverage experiences like Everipe.

5.   What advice can you offer to the founders and investors of new emerging brands that will help assure their continued growth? 

Kerry Roberts: “I wish there was a pandemic playbook! If I might offer any advice it would be: 

• To think carefully about any aggressive plans for rapid expansion and instead to first ensure that existing partners and channels are well cared for, and cash is managed. 

• To double down on listening to and serving your consumer, employees and partners. Your most efficient marketing efforts right now may just lie in how you listen to and treat people.

• To get comfortable with the discomfort of not having a crystal-clear road map. Exercising mental muscles for making the best decisions with available information, while the ground shifts underneath you, will position us all well as an uncertain future unfolds.”

Emergent: Following the true north and optimal strategic game plan in these uncertain times requires that new and emerging businesses pay close attention to consumers – and continuously dial how the brand and business behaves to serve their needs. What people want now is greater control over their lives and to invest in their own health and wellness. This is the path.

To the extent the brand lives in service of improving customer wellbeing, the opportunity for continued growth is achievable. The brand’s role here is as expert guide and coach on the consumer’s life journey. That principle should sit at the foundation of business decisions, marketing messaging and how the offer is presented to all stakeholders. 

Too often we see a form of brand narcissism unfold when the business celebrates itself and is in love with its formulation first, over its relevance to fulfilling consumer needs. Business is now built on reciprocity and that requires a less self-centered operating philosophy. 

Everipe is on a journey itself

As much as we speak about the consumer journey to fulfillment, meaning and purpose, so too Everipe is on a path to revolutionizing the smoothie and healthy beverage category. It will not be easy. Nothing of any real value ever is. Kerry’s comments are evidence of a remarkable sense of self and values that operates as guardrails for their decisions and provide a litmus test for their judgments.

We see great opportunity ahead. When food retail distribution re-emerges as a channel for their growth, we believe the evolving center store will become more of a curated location for higher quality, healthier choices. Everipe will likely be a star in that environment.

If your brand and business is on the hunt for fresh ideas, and improved brand storytelling, we’d love to talk with you.

Editorial note: Emergent would like to express our deepest appreciation to Kerry Roberts for participating in this story and helping to inspire and educate other brands now trailblazing a new healthier frontier in food and beverage.

Emergent’s guidance on what comes next

The recent Amazon/Whole Foods acquisition has ignited a firestorm of analysis and assessment concerning the impacts and implications. Some of the conversation has reached far and wide – from the future of supermarkets to outcomes for large CPG food brands and foodservice businesses.

Here we help summarize how the food industry changes could manifest, as well as guidance on what comes next.

Implications of the Amazon/Whole Foods acquisition

Grocery leadership is rapidly becoming a two horse race between Walmart and Amazon, creating a new class of retail that blends online and physical store strategies. The ‘new last mile’ competition now moves to address the single biggest barrier to grocery e-commerce growth: fresh/perishable sales. Many consumers lack trust in online platforms to select and safely transport produce and proteins to their standards and freshness expectations.

Change in strategy for supermarket companies

The future of supermarket companies shifts more towards ‘specialty retailer’ strategies focused on improved, curated grocery and perimeter businesses. Higher quality, unique products, local sourcing, improved Deli menus, Grocerant businesses, and heavier investment to in-store experience become the retail differentiator. The goal here is to leverage a physical advantage of tactile, higher quality food and culinary experience. E-commerce will be mission critical – that said, not likely anyone will catch up now to Walmart and Amazon. Costco maybe.

Hard discount takes price leadership, elevates private brand strategy

Entry of Lidl, and Aldi growth investment will put pressure on pricing at all levels. Large cap CPG may take the brunt of this as their core categories continue to see challenges in the face of cultural shifts to preference for new, innovative and higher quality, artisanal brands and fresh versions of packaged items. This could force more M&A activity to satisfy Wall Street and engage balance sheet efforts to reduce operating costs.

Emergence of super-premium private brand investments

Retailers, increasingly on the hunt for innovation and better margin businesses, will up their game by putting more investment in their private brand programs – potentially surpassing legacy CPG brands on quality and uniqueness. Amazon will bring 365 to their Fresh platform. This, in turn, puts more pricing pressure on large CPG.

Implications to casual restaurant chain business

Roughly half of casual dining restaurant chain sales are sourced from family occasions – and families have hastened the declining use of casual dining outlets, moving instead toward at-home meals. Primary reasons for the move back home are health (e.g., quality ingredients), preparation control and cost. The Amazon-Whole Foods combination could make at home/healthy meals easier and less expensive in ways that compete with supermarkets and restaurants. It’s possible that Amazon could become a top-10 restaurant chain (near the $5 billion in system sales of Panera Bread). By creating faster market share gains in perimeter categories, Amazon and Whole Foods will quicken the ongoing center-store rationalization.

Battle is on for hearts and minds of Millennials

Sixty percent of Millennials are Amazon buyers (source: NPD Group). Twenty percent of American consumers bought at least one item from Whole Foods last year, however among Millennials, the number is substantially higher: 24 percent. This is extraordinary penetration for a supermarket chain with just 431 stores. The proposed deal gives Amazon control of those stores – nearly all of them are in neighborhoods that are more affluent and younger than America as a whole.

Emergent’s guidance on what’s next:

1. Unique and differentiated brands are now more vital than ever as competitive leverage for supermarkets. Brands that play to consumer sensibilities around higher quality ingredients, craftsmanship and visibility to creation stories, and mission (Higher Purpose) will be key to retail channel.

2. Deli marketing and merchandising programs become more critical to supermarket growth as center store rationalization picks up pace; a conundrum for food retail as this is traditionally where the profit often sits. Pricing pressures on large cap CPG will likely come from several fronts. More legacy brand declines could be on the way, amping the need for faster innovation.

3. A newly charged renaissance in home cooking will create more opportunities for brand growth as consumers look for ideas and inspiration to fuel their eat-at-home aspirations. Creative programming to leverage this condition is key. Emergent has developed a variety of content creation strategies to leverage this opportunity, which can be repurposed for retailer use on their own social channels.

4. Further erosion of the casual dining segment is likely to continue due to competition from supermarkets and Amazon/Walmart for prepared foods, kits and fresh food solutions for at-home meals. For multi-channel companies this condition might recommend greater investment now in retail channel development and brand marketing investments.

5. The emergence of new brands in center store and perimeter categories will create challenges for retailers. This is due to absence of scaled promotion budgets and higher product input costs contributing to higher prices on lower overall volume businesses. Retailers will need more sophisticated marketing and merchandising solutions to help nurture and grow these higher quality, boutique brands. The same holds true for CPG companies that invest and acquire these new, emerging brands that require a different formula to build scale. Emergent has designed a new Emerging Brand Marketers’ Playbook for this purpose.

6. Consumers are omni-channel shoppers. The move online will accelerate and reach a tipping point in the next two years. Fresh is the battleground. Brands need to be collaborative partners with food retail as e-commerce strategies gain traction and the need to address trust issues with fresh/perishable item shopping is key to growth. Emergent can help optimize omni-channel strategies.

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“The table is a meeting place, a gathering ground,
the source of sustenance and nourishment,
festivity, safety, and satisfaction.
A person cooking is a person giving:
Even the simplest food is a gift.”
– Laurie Colwin –

Imagine a grocery retail business that fully understands and embraces this thinking, then translates that down to the store aisles in how the business is organized to operate in service of the experiences and outcomes people associate with food.

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